The future in policy

In its investigation The future in policy, the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR) looks at a number of certainties for 2050 that could serve as the basis for decisions to be made in the present from three different angles. Based on its belief that policy for the long term should be informed by uncertainties as well as certainties, the WRR has developed a frame of reference that allows policymakers to consider the future and discuss their considerations with other policymakers in a structured manner. Although this investigation considers the Dutch context specifically, the frame of reference may be applicable to other regional, national and supranational entities as well.

This investigation looks at certainties for 2050 from three different angles:

1. Big shifts – we know for certain that a number of changes, such as developments in terms of knowledge and technology, climate, demographics and geopolitics, will dramatically transform our living environment and everyday life. Even though we do not know the exact nature of these big shifts and their consequences for 2050, it is a certainty that they will happen. Moreover, we know that these types of change do not take place at random, but have occurred throughout history and will continue to do so in the future.
2. Anchor points – we know for certain that a range of factors, such as the existence of planetary boundaries, the geographic position of the Netherlands and people’s need for a purpose in life, are and will be present. These anchor points are almost certain to remain constant until 2050. As such, they define the boundaries within which policy can be made.
3. Tensions – we know for certain that big shifts and anchor points will collide, leading to tensions and societal challenges. These tensions may involve vulnerabilities, conflicts of values and necessary choices.

Policymakers tend to direct most of their energy and focus towards the issues of the day, so making policy for the long term is not the easiest or most obvious route to take. Studies on the future may help shift their attention to the issues of tomorrow. There are already regular forecasts, scenario studies and visions for the future that fulfil that role. The instrument that takes centre stage in this investigation is intended as a supplement to these. A systematic evaluation of certainties helps to make clear what kind of country the Netherlands of the future can be, as it offers insights into the essential conditions and trade-off required.